Archive for category: In the News

Fifty voices. Dozens of sectors. One sweeping look at how investors, lenders and advisors are preparing for the year ahead. Here’s what’s keeping them up at night — and what’s giving them hope.

By Demitri Diakantonis
January 2, 2026

Mega Trends Impacting M&A Now and in the Future: The fifth and final installment of our 2026 M&A Outlook focuses on the mega-trends reshaping dealmaking across sectors. Dealmakers point to a set of slow-moving, but powerful shifts redefining how capital is deployed. From the rapid growth of family office capital and generational wealth transfers to a rising share of transactions happening outside the traditional sponsor-auction playbook, these mega-trends will shape the M&A market in 2026 and the years beyond.

James Cassel
Chairman
Cassel Salpeter & Co.
“Technology will continue to enhance our ability to source and execute transactions more efficiently. However, the key will be finding reliable, accurate information to apply and carefully vetting out misinformation.”

Brian Dudley
Partner, Growth Equity
Adams Street Partners
“We’re watching the evolution of corporate venture arms, which are becoming increasingly strategic and active participants in growth-stage financings. Together with a more active secondary market, these trends point to a more dynamic deal environment, with capital flowing through a broader set of channels than in prior cycles.”

Kenny Walker-Durrant
Partner
Technology and Life Sciences
Goodwin Procter
“The balance of power in biopharma M&A is shifting, with mid-caps between $3 and $40 billion continuing to play a braver game and challenging big pharma, driving deal volume and taking a bigger share of the market.”

Sean Epps
Managing Director
GenNx360 Capital Partners
“We see several forces reshaping dealmaking including price transparency pushing platform valuations higher, making disciplined buy-and-build strategies more valuable as a way to create growth and generate returns, while sustainability is increasingly embedded in valuations. Additionally global capital flows are shifting as sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds lean into the middle market.”

Hendrik Jordaan
Partner
Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough
“The most significant mega-trend is the rise of family office capital. Estimates suggest that global single-family offices oversee approximately $3+ trillion in assets today, and that figure is expected to scale meaningfully as the intergenerational wealth transfer of up to approximately $100 trillion unfolds over the coming decades. As this capital moves from Baby Boomer wealth creators to the next generation, we are seeing a shift toward more direct investing, more emphasis on values and thematic alignment and a greater willingness to pursue bespoke deal structures rather than conventional fund-driven auction processes. This is already reshaping competitive dynamics in the middle market.
Second, we are seeing a continued blurring of the line between strategic and financial buyers. Operating companies are building in-house investment arms, while private equity firms and family offices are increasingly co-investing and forming long-term partnerships. This drives more minority deals, continuation vehicles, structured equity and creative governance terms.”

Uk-Sun Kim
Head of Credit
Originations – Middle Market &
Sponsor Finance
TD Bank
“Data rights and privacy frameworks will influence valuations, with assets boasting clean data provenance and strong governance commanding higher premiums, while due diligence expands to include AI safety and model risk. Payments and embedded finance are likely to see consolidation, as the rationalization of BaaS and ISV (independent software vendors) ecosystems drives banks to acquire or form deeper, compliance-focused partnerships. Finally, climate risk and insurance capacity shifts, driven by catastrophe repricing in coastal and wildfire regions, will reshape the economics of real assets M&A.”

Louis Lehot
Partner
Foley & Lardner
“We need to see reforms in the securities laws to enable the proliferation of digital assets on a legal basis, and we need a fundamental reform of the capital markets to reinvigorate the public markets. This will require some increased regulation of the private markets.”

Michael Magruder
Managing Director and Co-lead of Supply Chain Software
Brown Gibbons Lang & Co.
“Elite capital allocators will capture additional market share driven by network effects, information advantages accelerated by AI and changes in underwriting criteria driven by an increasing array of available financial products. This will result in a number of funds across venture, growth equity, control capital and private lending struggling to differentiate and compete in transactions further accelerating the aggregation of top assets within a narrow cohort of investors.”

David Ng
Principal
Avante Capital Partners
“We will see heightened attention around risk mitigation. For example, business owners and operators will place greater emphasis and thought around diversifying suppliers and strengthening supply chain operations.”

Peter Witte
Director, Global Private Equity Lead Analyst
EY
“Thematically, many of us were brought up thinking that some measure of certainty was a precondition for the M&A markets to function. While that remains broadly true, both corporate acquirers and PE sponsors increasingly recognize that the greater risk lies in standing still. As 2026 progresses, firms are expected to pursue transactions despite some remaining macro uncertainty – deepening diligence, expanding scenario planning and structuring deals with enhanced risk-mitigation features. Ultimately, resilience and adaptability will define the next phase of M&A, with firms advancing despite volatility to capitalize on opportunities.”

Amanda Zablocki
Partner, Co-Leader of the National Healthcare Team
Sheppard Mullin
“The collision of environmental factors, economic uncertainty and rising costs of healthcare are intensifying the focus on the country’s public health infrastructure. Until there are effective solutions on the public health front, the private sector will continue to be expected to deliver its own solutions and shoulder the costs and other challenges of ensuring people have access to quality healthcare across the country. This impacts not only health plans, hospitals and other healthcare providers, but also large employers across the country, creating a ripple effect that travels well beyond traditional healthcare. This may drive increased dealmaking across the broader economy for years to come.”

Eric Zinterhofer
Founding Partner
Searchlight Capital
“Public-to-private activity is accelerating. Small-cap public companies face systematic disadvantages in capital access and investor attention, causing good management teams to pursue privatization. Structured investments are increasingly necessary to create win-wins for sellers and buyers. Structural elements such as preferred equity layers and contractual return protections allow buyers to generate good risk-adjusted returns while providing liquidity and leaving upside for existing equity holders.”

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By Edward Hardy
December 4, 2025

• Trans-Pacific airfreight has been sharply impacted by US tariffs on Chinese goods and the removal of the US$800 de minimis exemption, causing e-commerce volumes to fall by around 50–60 percent and prompting a shift from air to bulk sea freight, longer supply chains, and redeployment of freighters to alternative routes.
• The structural disruption extends across logistics, retail, manufacturing, and warehousing, with airlines adjusting capacity, fleet deployment, and route strategies while facing pricing pressures; major US airports have seen a 30 percent drop in freighter arrivals, highlighting operational and employment impacts.
• Recovery and adaptation depend on monitoring e-commerce trends, trade policy, nearshoring, and supply-chain diversification, with airlines leveraging data analytics, route optimisation, and partnerships to streamline operations, manage costs, and maintain profitability amid ongoing tariff and regulatory uncertainty.

With tariffs still in flux and the full effects expected to ripple through 2025 and into 2026, the dynamics of cargo movement—particularly airfreight—have shifted sharply across the trans-Pacific trade corridor. US tariffs on Chinese goods, combined with regulatory changes such as the elimination of the US$800 de minimis exemption, have disrupted e-commerce logistics, reduced airfreight volumes, and sent reverberations through global supply chains.

These are not merely short-term disruptions but structural shifts that are altering sourcing strategies, delivery timelines, and the economics of moving goods.

“Everything is still in flux with the tariffs put in place, those outstanding, specifically China, and the effects to be felt through the balance of the year and into 2026 and beyond,” says Joey Smith, Director at Cassel Salpeter & Co. “My responses are based on the best info and data at my disposal, both proprietary and sourced from other industry experts I find credible.”

The double blow
The trans-Pacific air cargo market has been particularly hard hit, with volumes falling around 60 percent. Smith explains that the sharp decline is linked not only to the tariffs themselves but also to the removal of the US$800 de minimis exemption, which previously allowed small, low-value shipments to bypass tariffs and standard customs processes.

“This exemption facilitated the direct-to-consumer, duty-free e-commerce model,” Smith notes. “Platforms like Alibaba, Shein and Temu shipped a high volume of low-cost goods. With the exemption gone, these shipments are now subject to tariffs and full customs procedures, increasing costs and logistical hurdles.” In May 2025 alone, e-commerce bookings dropped by roughly 50 percent.

Airlines have responded by redeploying freighters on alternative routes, particularly within Southeast Asia, while Chinese e-commerce giants have shifted toward bulk sea freight to US warehouses. “The platforms are elongating their supply chains by weeks, moving away from individual air shipments,” Smith says. “Further reshaping of sourcing and logistics tactics will become more prevalent as the new tariff landscape continues to evolve and play out.”

This confluence of tariff and regulatory pressures has broader consequences. Reduced airfreight volumes raise costs, slow delivery times, and encourage companies to rethink their logistics strategies—changes that ripple down through retail, manufacturing, warehousing, and transportation sectors.

Wider impact
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has cut its air cargo growth forecast from 5.8 percent to near zero, reflecting more than just tariffs. According to Smith, the revision also considers macroeconomic uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions, slowing economic growth, inflation, and declining consumer confidence. “These factors impact consumer spending and, by extension, the need for airfreight services, which were delivering record metrics in 2024,” he says.

Compounding the issue is the elimination of exemptions under the 1980 Civil Aircraft Agreement. “This termination allows countries to impose tariffs on civil aircraft, engines, flight simulators, and related parts and components,” Smith explains. “The increased costs affect the entire supply chain—from aluminium, steel, and titanium production to aircraft pricing and spare parts—impacting airlines and manufacturers worldwide.”

At major US airports, the effects are visible. Smith highlights a reported 30 percent drop in trans-Pacific freighter arrivals at the top 18 airports, particularly on the West Coast, including LAX, SFO, ORD, JFK, and LGA. “This is more than a numbers issue. Reduced activity can lead to operational consequences, job losses, or slower hiring in logistics, trucking, warehousing, and last-mile delivery sectors,” he warns.

Shifts and strategic adaptation
The decline in US air cargo volumes—down 25 percent year-on-year through May 2025—is striking compared to other major markets. North America saw the largest contraction, while Asia-Pacific, Europe, and Latin America recorded modest growth. The Asia-North America corridor, long a backbone of e-commerce shipments, has borne the brunt of the downturn.

“China’s void is being partially absorbed by other Asian markets and Europe/Middle East routes,” Smith says. “But the sudden drop in e-commerce shipments has forced cargo airlines to rethink their business models, from capacity adjustments and fleet redeployment to route diversification and capitalising on nearshoring trends.”

Chinese e-commerce platforms have increasingly turned to slower, cheaper sea freight, reshaping the economics of airfreight. Airlines are exploring partnerships, niche markets, and consolidated shipments to optimise cargo space and reduce unit costs. “Real-time tracking, route optimisation, and data analytics are being leveraged more heavily to streamline operations, minimise delays, and identify cost-saving opportunities,” Smith observes.

Financially, the shifts have complex implications. Passenger carriers with belly cargo can benefit, as cargo can account for 5 percent of total revenue yet contribute up to 30 percent of a route’s profitability. However, high-demand airfreight routes face intense competition and pricing pressures, underscoring the delicate balance between cargo and passenger operations.

Signals of recovery
Keeping a close eye on both market and policy developments, Smith advises focusing on e-commerce growth, shifts in consumer habits, industrial production, PMIs, fuel price fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and nearshoring trends. Policy factors include trade agreements, customs regulations, Open Sky agreements, and sustainability initiatives such as sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).

In the near term, the combination of tariffs, regulatory changes, and shifting logistics strategies is likely to continue shaping the trans-Pacific trade corridor.

“Monitoring these developments helps assess whether the air cargo market is moving toward recovery or facing further disruption,” Smith concluded. “The location of manufacturing hubs, diversification of supply chains, and regional trade flows will significantly influence airfreight routes and pricing strategies.”

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With the restructuring, eight locations will continue operating, from 18 in May

By Alicia Kelso
September 11, 2025

Planta, a plant-based restaurant concept founded in Toronto, Canada, has emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy through a strategic asset sale to New CHG US Holdings.

Planta and 17 affiliates filed for bankruptcy protection in May. With this restructuring, eight locations across North America will continue operating. The remaining locations have closed.

Cassel Salpeter & Co., an independent investment banking firm that provides advisory services to middle market and emerging growth companies, facilitated to sale of assets of CHG US Holdings LLC, parent company of restaurant chain Planta, to New CHG US Holdings, which is a newly formed entity affiliated with Anchorage Capital Group, one of its former creditors. According to court documents, the group acquired the chain for about $7.8 million, mostly in converted debt.

Operating under a portfolio of multiple concepts, including Planta Global, Planta Queen, and Planta Cocina, the concept features vegan cuisine and robust bar programs.

Planta is led by founder and chief executive officer Steven Salm and co-founder and executive chef David Lee. They opened the first location with the goal of expanding “the accessibility and acceptability of plant-based dining,” according to the company’s website.

The company said it strives to operate in a paperless and reduced-waste environment, eliminating paper checks, printed materials, and single-use water bottles, for instance. The menu is focused on seasonal and local produce and varies by location. Some examples include Pad Thai Slaw, Chinese Chick’N Salad, and Japanese Steak.
In its petition from May, Planta listed $50,000 to $100,000 in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities. It cited the pandemic and increased costs for its struggles.

Plant-based and vegan-centric concepts have experienced significant challenges in recent months. Neat Burger recently closed all but two of its locations, following a broader trend of such concepts’ closures, for instance. Kevin Hart’s vegan quick-service chain Hart House also closed all four of its locations in late 2024 after a two-year run. New York City’s landmark restaurant Eleven Madison Park recently began serving meat again after going meatless in 2021.

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By Jason Hall
September 15, 2025

A popular vegan restaurant chain will close the majority of its locations after surviving Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Planta, which opened in 2016 and focuses on 100% plant-based dining, will shrink from 18 total locations to eight after a judge signed off on its bankruptcy plan. The company filed for bankruptcy in May and was reported to be facing between $10 million and $50 million in liabilities with almost no assets at the time.

Cassel Salpeter & Co., an independent investment banking firm, facilitated the sale of assets to Planta’s parent company, CHG US Holdings LLC, to New CHC US Holdings, a newly formed company launched in affiliation with Anchorage Capital Group, which was previously one of its creditors, according to Nation’s Restaurant News via The Street. The reported sale was estimated to be for about $7.8 million, most of which converted debt, according to court filings.

Planta still faces a difficult battle as plant-based meat restaurants have struggled to find consistent success in the U.S. market. Several other vegan and plant-based restaurants, including Plum Bistro, Paradox Cafe, Fair Weather, Sage Regenerative Kitchen & Brewery, Veggie Grill and Neat Burger, either closed all locations or faced significant downsizing in 2025.

“Despite hopes that burgers, sausages and chicken made from soy, peas and beans would curb Americans’ love of eating butchered animals – thereby reducing the rampant deforestation, water pollution and planet-heating emissions involved in raising livestock – these alternatives languish at just 1% of the total meat market in the US,” the Guardian reported.

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Between 2015-2024, the volume of de minimis shipments into the U.S. rose from 134 million shipments to more than 1.36 billion shipments

By Jeff Berman
August 29, 2025

Effective today, August 29, the de minimis exemption, which allows shipments under $800 sent to the United States to not be subject to tariffs, officially will be removed. That was the edict delivered in a White House executive order in late July.

As previously reported by LM, the White House said that this action, which initially focused on U.S.-bound shipments originating from China and Hong Kong, is being taken to closed what it called a catastrophic loophole used to evade tariffs and funnel deadly synthetic opioids and other unsafe or below-market products that harm American workers and businesses into the U.S.  

And it added that effective August 29, “imported goods sent through means other than the international postal network that are valued at or under $800 and that would otherwise qualify for the de minimis exemption will be subject to all applicable duties.”

What’s more, it explained that between 2015-2024, the volume of de minimis shipments into the U.S. rose from 134 million shipments to more than 1.36 billion shipments, with U.S. Customs and Border Protection processing more than 4 million de minimis shipments into the U.S. on a daily basis. And it added that volume from de minimis shipments that are also from countries that historically have not abused the de minimis exemption has seen significant increases, at 309 million in fiscal year 2025, through June 30, whereas they came in at 115 million in fiscal year 2024—which the White House said resulted in significant lost revenue for the U.S.

This executive order followed a May 2 action by the White House in which it suspended the de minimis treatment for low-value packages from China and Hong Kong that it said represent most de minimis shipments entering the U.S., which was expected—and subsequently has—had a major impact on online retailers like Shein and Temu, which rely on sending goods directly to U.S. shoppers without paying tariffs. 

In an April 8 executive order, the White House stated that the initially-announced tariff of 30% of an item’s value or $25 per item, whichever is more, would be increased to 90% and $75 or more, effective on or after 12:01 A.M. ET on May 2. And it added that fee per postal item containing goods will be increased from an initially-announced $50 to $150, effective, was set to take effect on or after 12:01 A.M. ET on June 1.

Under the Biden administration, the White House in 2024 said it was taking steps towards changing the rules around imports claiming the $800 de minimis exemption.

Noting that the majority of shipments claiming the import exemption originate from several China-founded e-commerce platforms (like Shein and Temu, among others) the White House proposed changes in which the de minimis exemption might not be allowed for products to which Section 201, 301, and 232 duties might otherwise apply.

What’s more, in the weeks leading up to the removal of the de minimis exemption, various reports indicated that more than 25 countries have suspended outbound postal services to the U.S., due to uncertainties regarding the removal of the de minimis exemption. A China Daily report pointed to confusion and insufficient clarity about implementing the new rules.

In its executive order, the White House stated that with the de minimis exemption no longer applying as of 12:01 AM ET on August 29, commercial low-value shipments, regardless of origin, value, or entry method, will be subject to applicable duties and required to go through formal customs entry.

For non-postal shipments moving through an integrator like UPS, FedEx, or DHL, they now will go through Customs via the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) and also may require entry filings and bonds. And for shipments moving through international postal services, a duty will be placed on packages based on the tariff rate of the shipment’s country of origin, with a flat fee of $80, $160, or $200 per package contingent on the country’s IEEPA tariff rate.

In an interview, John Haber, Chief Strategy Officer at Transportation Insight, noted that a key driver for the removal of the de minimis exemption was that the White House likely felt as if people were circumventing the effect of it and pushing through low-cost and cheap labor goods into the U.S., essentially flooding the market.
“This should not be too surprising, as it has been sort of telegraphed that this was going to happen,” Haber told LM, adding that when the executive order was issued, it was somewhat surprising to see that the removal of the exemption was going to apply to all nations shipping into the U.S.

Craig Reed, SVP of Global Trade at Toronto-based Avalara, said that the decision by the White to eliminate the longstanding $800 de minimis exemption marks a transformative shift in U.S. trade policy, ending the expedited, duty-free entry of low‑value goods that has been in place since March 2016—adding that with its removal, micro-importers are now subject to formal custom processes, meaning e-commerce platforms and small importers will now need to apply the proper rate of duty for goods shipped to the U.S., regardless of value. 

“For businesses, the implications are substantial: tariff impacts, additional handling fees, and more complex customs entry protocols that negatively affect operational agility,” said Reed. “Consumers can expect to see as a result elevated costs and extended delivery timelines for goods purchased from e-commerce merchants. This shift will ripple through supply chains, and the competitive landscape may tilt toward sellers who can absorb or effectively communicate these new burdens. To navigate this new landscape and stay competitive, agility and automation will be crucial. Because these businesses are now responsible for assigning the correct HTS (tariff) code to their products and ensuring compliance with entry requirements, it can be challenging to keep up with the different rules and processes that vary by product, country, and other factors.”

From an air cargo perspective, data from aviation specialist investment bankers Cassel Salpeter observed that air cargo volume between China and the U.S. have fallen 60% since reciprocal tariffs went into effect—which it said has forced a reshaping of global trade routes. It also noted that tariffs are impacting e-commerce bookings, as evidenced by a roughly 50% decline in May.

“The elimination of the $800 de minimis exception for imported goods, combined with increased tariffs, is expected to send air cargo volumes plummeting for low-value e-commerce shipments: a major component of China-U.S. airfreight traffic,” the firm said. “With de minimis exemptions unlikely to return, Chinese e-commerce leaders like Alibaba, Shein, and Temu now send products into the U.S. via bulk sea freight shipments to U.S.-based warehouses and distribution centers, abandoning their use of individual air shipments for direct-to-consumer fulfilment that previously drove cargo aviation growth. There is new reallocation of aircraft from the China-U.S. market to European and other regional routes as cargo airlines reconsider fleet deployment strategies and network planning in response to tariff-induced trade flow changes.”

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