State of Air Cargo: Elimination of De Minimis Exception and Increased Tariffs Send Air Cargo Volumes Plummeting

The air cargo sector faces major headwinds within this evolving tariff environment.
By Marina Mayer
August 12, 2025

New trade policies introduced by the United States have ushered in a challenging period for the aviation industry, particularly the air cargo and freight sector.

“The industry was set to build on a record 2024 performance with strong prospects for 2025 and beyond after years of post-COVID rebuilding and growth. It would be unfortunate and counterproductive to destabilize this important industry and its complex ecosystem, and we are hopeful that new international trade agreements can be reached with common-sense exemptions and reduced levies,” according to Cassel Salpeter & Co. “Until tariff uncertainties are resolved, it remains difficult to forecast the future of the industry and supply chains. We are cautiously optimistic that the industry will be able to adapt with new routes and strategies to weather the storm, executing a smooth landing after tariff turbulence.”

Despite the challenging landscape, the air cargo industry is exploring strategies to adapt, while hoping for policy resolution. And, new opportunities may emerge through expansion into additional global markets and premium air cargo pricing, according to datasets released by Cassel Salpeter & Co.

Key takeaways:

  • Air freight operators might take proactive measures to mitigate tariff impacts by relocating or onshoring some of their operations and adopting hybrid models that combine direct air fulfillment with pre-stocked forward warehouses in key markets. This approach has the potential to establish new partnerships with countries that can reach negotiated settlements and reduced tariffs, which could diversify existing freight routes and generate additional business for air freight carriers.
  • U.S.-based cargo airlines are actively seeking ways to offset higher import costs. Lower fuel prices can provide relief if demand remains stable, while rising jet fuel prices allow airlines to implement fuel surcharges that typically include profits above actual costs.
  • Another cost-reduction opportunity involves consolidating air and ocean shipments under single customs entries, potentially reducing customs brokerage and government processing fees per shipment.
  • The International Air Transport Association (IATA) downgraded its 2025 guidance for air cargo demand from its 5.8% growth forecast, issued December 2024, to a revised forecast of near-zero growth for the year. This represents a significant reversal for an industry where air cargo volume for passenger and all-cargo airlines grew 12% in 2024, reaching all-time highs.
  • Air cargo volumes in the United States through May have declined approximately 25%, year-over-year, per estimates from freight forwarders and customs brokers. The decline has accelerated since May 2, when the de minimis exemption ended for goods from China. Since the Trump administration announced reciprocal tariffs in April, China-U.S. cargo volumes have dropped by up to 60%. Tariffs have severely impacted e-commerce bookings, which fell approximately 50% in May 2025.
  • The daily number of trans-Pacific air freighters arriving at the Top 18 U.S. airports has decreased by approximately 30% since April, according to Cirrus Global Advisors. Current forecasts suggest the air cargo market could experience a continued downturn in the second half of the year due to the persistence of new U.S.-imposed tariffs and potential retaliatory measures taken by other countries.
  • The impact of new U.S. tariff policy will extend far beyond immediate cost pressures; new trade policy aims to transform international trade and recast global trade routes. As a result, the tariffs have been particularly destabilizing to the airfreight industry, driving price volatility and forcing comprehensive route planning overhauls, particularly within the e-commerce sector.
  • The elimination of the $800 de minimis exception for imported goods, combined with increased tariffs, is expected to send air cargo volumes plummeting for low-value e-commerce shipments. With de minimis exemptions unlikely to return, Chinese e-commerce leaders now send products into the United States via bulk sea freight shipments to U.S.-based warehouses and distribution centers, abandoning their use of individual air shipments for direct-to-consumer fulfilment that previously drove cargo aviation growth.
  • The air cargo sector faces major headwinds within this evolving tariff environment. Cargo airlines must navigate an increasingly complex landscape of disrupted trade flows as manufacturers and retailers reconfigure supply chains in response to new levies. This will reshape network planning, capacity deployment, and aircraft acquisition strategies as carriers adapt to altered trade routes and cargo volumes.
  • The implications of new trade policies are concerning and include declining demand for freighter aircraft and fleet expansion. This may be amplified by a downturn in freighter conversions, driven by rising component costs and procurement delays. Dedicated freighters increasingly dominate global trade volume over passenger aircraft belly cargo; volatility in the freighter market can drive significant systemic impacts.

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Indigo Acquisition Corp. Announces Separate Trading of its Ordinary Shares and Rights

Source: INDIGO ACQUISITION CORP

NEW YORK, July 18, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Indigo Acquisition Corp. (NASDAQ: INACU) (the “Company”) announced today that, commencing on or about July 30, 2025, holders of its units sold in the Company’s initial public offering may elect to separately trade the Company’s ordinary shares and rights included in the units. The ordinary shares and rights that are separated will trade on the Nasdaq Global Market (“Nasdaq”) under the symbols “INAC” and “INACR,” respectively. No fractional rights will be issued upon separation of the units and only whole rights will trade. Those units not separated will continue to trade on Nasdaq under the symbol “INACU.” Holders of units will need to have their brokers contact Continental Stock Transfer & Trust Company, the Company’s transfer agent, in order to separate the units into ordinary shares and rights.

The Company is a Cayman exempt company, formed as a blank check company for the purpose of entering into a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, recapitalization, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses or entities. The Company intends to focus on opportunities with established, profitable companies with attractive market positions and/or growth potential that can leverage our management team’s experience and expertise. The Company is led by its Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, James S. Cassel, and its Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, Scott Salpeter.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This press release contains statements that constitute “forward-looking statements.” Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous conditions, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, including those set forth in the Risk Factors section of the Company’s final prospectus relating to the Company’s initial public offering filed with the SEC on July 1, 2025. Copies are available on the SEC’s website, www.sec.gov. The Company undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this release, except as required by law.

Contact:

James S. Cassel, CEO
jcassel@cs-ib.com
305-438-7700

Scott Salpeter, CFO
ssalpeter@cs-ib.com
305-438-7700

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Indigo Acquisition Corp. Announces Closing of Full Over-Allotment Option

Source: INDIGO ACQUISITION CORP

NEW YORK, July 11, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Indigo Acquisition Corp. (the “Company”) announced today that it has consummated the sale of the full 1,500,000 units subject to the over-allotment option granted to the underwriters in connection with its initial public offering. The additional units were sold at $10.00 per unit, generating additional gross proceeds to the Company of $15,000,000.

The Company’s units are listed on the Nasdaq Global Market (“Nasdaq”) and trade under the ticker symbol “INACU.” Each unit consists of one ordinary share and one right entitling its holder to receive one tenth of one ordinary share upon the Company’s completion of an initial business combination, subject to adjustment. Once the securities comprising the units begin separate trading, the ordinary shares and rights are expected to be listed on Nasdaq under the symbols “INAC” and “INACR,” respectively.

The Company is a Cayman exempt company, formed as a blank check company for the purpose of entering into a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, recapitalization, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses or entities. The Company intends to focus on opportunities with established, profitable companies with attractive market positions and/or growth potential that can leverage our management team’s experience and expertise. The Company is led by its Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, James S. Cassel, and its Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, Scott Salpeter.

EarlyBirdCapital, Inc. acted as the book-running manager for the offering and IB Capital acted as co-manager for the offering. The offering was made by means of a prospectus. Copies of the prospectus may be obtained from EarlyBirdCapital, Inc., 366 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10017, Attention: Syndicate Department, or (212) 661-0200.

A registration statement relating to these securities was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and was declared effective on June 30, 2025. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This press release contains statements that constitute “forward-looking statements.” No assurance can be given that the net proceeds of the offering will be used as indicated in the offering prospectus. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous conditions, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, including those set forth in the Risk Factors section of the Company’s registration statement and preliminary prospectus for the offering filed with the SEC. Copies are available on the SEC’s website, www.sec.gov. The Company undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this release, except as required by law.

Contact:

James S. Cassel, CEO
jcassel@cs-ib.com
305-438-7700

Scott Salpeter, CFO
ssalpeter@cs-ib.com
305-438-7700

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Indigo Acquisition Corp. Announces Closing of $100,000,000 Initial Public Offering

Source: INDIGO ACQUISITION CORP

NEW YORK, July 02, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Indigo Acquisition Corp. (the “Company”) announced today that it closed its initial public offering of 10,000,000 units at $10.00 per unit. The offering resulted in gross proceeds to the Company of $100,000,000.

The Company’s units are listed on the Nasdaq Global Market (“Nasdaq”) and trade under the ticker symbol “INACU.” Each unit consists of one ordinary share and one right entitling its holder to receive one tenth of one ordinary share upon the Company’s completion of an initial business combination, subject to adjustment. Once the securities comprising the units begin separate trading, the ordinary shares and rights are expected to be listed on Nasdaq under the symbols “INAC” and “INACR,” respectively.

The Company is a Cayman exempt company, formed as a blank check company for the purpose of entering into a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, recapitalization, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses or entities. The Company intends to focus on opportunities with established, profitable companies with attractive market positions and/or growth potential that can leverage our management team’s experience and expertise. The Company is led by its Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, James S. Cassel, and its Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, Scott Salpeter.

Of the proceeds received from the consummation of the initial public offering and a simultaneous private placement of units, $100,000,000 was placed in trust.

EarlyBirdCapital, Inc. acted as the book-running manager for the offering and IB Capital acted as co-manager for the offering. The Company has granted the underwriters a 45-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,500,000 units at the initial public offering price to cover over-allotments, if any. The offering is being made only by means of a prospectus. Copies of the prospectus may be obtained, when available, from EarlyBirdCapital, Inc., 366 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10017, Attention: Syndicate Department, or (212) 661-0200.

A registration statement relating to these securities was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and was declared effective on June 30, 2025. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This press release contains statements that constitute “forward-looking statements.” No assurance can be given that the net proceeds of the offering will be used as indicated in the offering prospectus. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous conditions, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, including those set forth in the Risk Factors section of the Company’s registration statement and preliminary prospectus for the offering filed with the SEC. Copies are available on the SEC’s website, www.sec.gov. The Company undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this release, except as required by law.

Contact:

James S. Cassel, CEO
jcassel@cs-ib.com
305-438-7700

Scott Salpeter, CFO
ssalpeter@cs-ib.com
305-438-7700

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Indigo Acquisition Corp. Announces Pricing of $100,000,000 Initial Public Offering

Source: INDIGO ACQUISITION CORP

NEW YORK, June 30, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Indigo Acquisition Corp. (the “Company”) announced today that it priced its initial public offering of 10,000,000 units at $10.00 per unit. The Company’s units will be listed on the Nasdaq Global Market (“Nasdaq”) and will begin trading tomorrow, July 1, 2025, under the ticker symbol “INACU.” Each unit consists of one ordinary share and one right entitling its holder to receive one tenth of one ordinary share upon the Company’s completion of an initial business combination, subject to adjustment. Once the securities comprising the units begin separate trading, the ordinary shares and rights are expected to be listed on Nasdaq under the symbols “INAC” and “INACR,” respectively.

The Company is a Cayman exempt company, formed as a blank check company for the purpose of entering into a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, recapitalization, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses or entities. The Company intends to focus on opportunities with established, profitable companies with attractive market positions and/or growth potential that can leverage our management team’s experience and expertise. The Company is led by its Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, James S. Cassel, and its Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, Scott Salpeter.

EarlyBirdCapital, Inc. is acting as the book-running manager for the offering and IB Capital is acting as co-manager for the offering. The Company has granted the underwriters a 45-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,500,000 units at the initial public offering price to cover over-allotments, if any. The offering is being made only by means of a prospectus. Copies of the prospectus may be obtained, when available, from EarlyBirdCapital, Inc., 366 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10017, Attention: Syndicate Department, or (212) 661-0200.

A registration statement relating to these securities was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and was declared effective on June 30, 2025. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This press release contains statements that constitute “forward-looking statements.” No assurance can be given that the offering discussed above will be completed on the terms described, or at all, or that the net proceeds of the offering will be used as indicated in the offering prospectus. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous conditions, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, including those set forth in the Risk Factors section of the Company’s registration statement and preliminary prospectus for the offering filed with the SEC. Copies are available on the SEC’s website, www.sec.gov. The Company undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this release, except as required by law.

Contact:

James S. Cassel, CEO
jcassel@cs-ib.com
305-438-7700

Scott Salpeter, CFO
ssalpeter@cs-ib.com
305-438-7700

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Turbulence ahead: how global tariffs threaten US $1tr aviation success

By GlobalData
June 25, 2025

Tariffs will cause a storm in aviation, but Joey Smith argues they are actually well-placed to navigate the ‘headwinds’ at play.

With the snap of a finger through Executive Orders, the US President imposed varying tariffs against the entire world. The healthy global aviation industry is suddenly under fire, writes Joey Smith of investment banking firm Cassel Salpeter.

The US aviation industry’s performance is approaching all-time highs in 2025, and revenues are projected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, solidifying the industry’s strongest recovery post-COVID. The aviation industry’s total global economic impact, both direct and indirect, is estimated at more than $4 trillion, while supporting at least 11 million jobs directly and more than 86 million indirectly.

It would be a shame and reckless to impact this industry and its supply chain. Air transport provides significant economic and social benefits, as it facilitates tourism, trade, and connectivity and enables rapid disaster responses and a lifeline for remote communities worldwide.

The US aviation industry, a shining star and net exporter for the domestic economy, is receiving a raw deal with the Trump tariff agenda. It is a prime example of US manufacturing prowess, offering well-paying jobs and producing one of the largest trade surpluses of any industry for years.

The aircraft, engine, and parts manufacturing industry in the US is expected to export about $125 billion this year, second only to the oil and gas extraction industry, with Boeing being America’s biggest exporter of goods. Approximately 80% of Boeing’s planes are transported to overseas customers. The effects globally and in the US could be far-reaching, from manufacturers and their supply chains, all the way downstream to the flying public.

Introducing tariffs in the aviation sector is an unforced error and is likely to hurt the healthy domestic aviation ecosystem. President Trump’s newly introduced global tariffs represent a “black swan” event with potentially dramatic and unpredictable consequences for the aviation industry and complementary sectors, up and down the supply chain, in the U.S. and abroad.

Specifically, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA, which replaced NAFTA, is on shaky ground, and new North American tariffs could take a significant toll on downstream companies operating within the complex aircraft components supply chain, which has struggled for years with material and labour shortages.

The North American aviation industry is highly interconnected, and the tariffs will impact industry participants both big and small. The notion that new tariffs will drive the movement of production to the United States may be a fallacy. Planes take years to design and manufacture and are typically used for decades; decisions to relocate operations or open new facilities are not made lightly. In addition to high upfront costs, companies looking to expand their US presence will continue to face a skilled worker shortage that has impacted the industry for years.

The dynamic nature of these policies, with exemptions granted and modifications made on short notice, creates substantial uncertainty that further complicates long-term planning. Aircraft transactions typically involve lengthy timelines, and the shifting tariff landscape means that deals struck before the new policies could face unexpected additional costs at closing.

This unpredictability will drive changes in new contract terms, with buyers and sellers needing to carefully allocate tariff risks and develop contingencies for policy changes.

The MRO sector faces new uncertainty, with additional guidance needed from trade officials in the U.S. and abroad. Historically, when US operators brought aircraft or parts to foreign jurisdictions for repairs, no new formal entry or duties were required upon return. However, given that this duty-free treatment was based on the Civil Aircraft Agreement, it is unclear whether such exemptions will continue under the new tariff regime.

Supply chain diversification could accelerate in response to the tariffs. Aviation businesses are reassessing their vendor networks and exploring alternatives in countries less affected by the new duties. This includes potential shifts in parts sourcing, maintenance, and servicing, and even aircraft selection, based on the country of manufacture.

The air cargo industry also faces new headwinds within an evolving tariff landscape. Policy uncertainty, tariff flip-flopping, and exemption jockeying cause distress within the market. Cargo airlines must now navigate a complex landscape of shifting trade flows as manufacturers and retailers modify their supply chains in response to tariff pressures. This will lead to changes in network planning, capacity deployment, and even aircraft acquisition strategies as carriers adapt to new trade routes and volumes.

These tariff challenges and the ripple economic effects are concerning, yet we believe that the US aviation industry and all its downstream sector participants are well-positioned to be proactive, both politically and operationally, to navigate the incoming tariff headwinds. We are hopeful that during these days of uncertainty, the US aviation sector, one of the strongest exporters and employers in the US, will not only weather the storm but emerge stronger and more resilient.

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Doubts About Job Market Turning Around Soon Easy To Understand

By Angela Gabriel
May 9, 2025

In a recent BioSpace LinkedIn poll, nearly half of respondents predicted the job market won’t turn around until 2027 or later. It’s easy to see why people are skeptical, especially when you consider recent hiring activity and layoffs.

EDITORIAL
Biopharma professionals don’t have much hope for the biopharma job market turning around this year, based on a recent BioSpace LinkedIn poll. A whopping 74% of respondents predicted it won’t improve until 2026 or later, and 44% don’t expect a turnaround until at least 2027. It’s easy to understand the skepticism given that the positive signs people were looking for to spur hiring, including increased funding, haven’t materialized as layoffs continue.

Biopharma professional Pierre Michel Baez Ortiz is among those feeling pessimistic about the job market turning around anytime soon. In a poll comment, he noted that Maryland hasn’t recovered from the crash after the pandemic-era money infusion ran out.

“Over three years and the region is unstable as hell,” he wrote. “There’s zero job security and some people in my network have been unemployed for more than a year, a few for several years. And now we have more big companies leaving Montgomery County.”

If the industry recovers, he added, it wouldn’t be for maybe two more years.

Biopharma professional Ricardo Azedo took a more positive tone in the poll comments, writing, “I want to be hopeful, so I’d cast my vote to ‘as soon as possible.’”

That said, just 27% of voters predicted the job market will turn around by the end of this year.

Reasons for Skepticism Easy To Find

It’s not hard to spot what might be fueling people’s skepticism. In addition to factors such as venture capital funding dropping 20% year over year in the first quarter, massive Department of Health and Human Services layoffs and looming pharma tariffs, consider:

  • Late last month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of job openings was little changed in March and dropped by 901,000 over the year.
  • In April, job postings live on the BioSpace website were up just 1% month over month and down 8% year over year.
  • Although the number of biopharma professionals laid off in April dropped 22% year over year, according to BioSpace tallies, the 1,357 people affected was the second-highest monthly total of 2025. (Note: Figures exclude contract development and manufacturing organizations, contract research organizations, tools and services businesses and medical device firms.)

In what’s sure to be unwelcome news, May’s layoffs have already surpassed April’s with Teva Pharmaceuticals cutting 2,893 employees worldwide. Add Bristol Myers Squibb’s layoffs of 516 people in Lawrenceville, New Jersey, and you’re at about 3,400 people out of work between just two companies. That’s especially significant given that just over 4,000 biopharma employees were laid off over the entire first quarter.

Those layoff numbers likely wouldn’t surprise Ira Leiderman, healthcare managing director at investment banking firm Cassel Salpeter & Co. During an interview for a recent BioSpace article, he noted that companies are “leaning down.”

“People need to husband their cash, manage their expenditures, and unfortunately, it’s costing people their jobs and their livelihoods,” he said.

Leiderman doesn’t see hiring rising in the near term and theorized that mid-level and senior-level people could leave the country and head to Europe, leading to some brain drain. He also noted that biopharma professionals might change industries.

For those who need jobs now, and especially for those who’ve needed them for several months or longer, leaving the U.S. or biopharma itself to gain employment is understandable. As Leiderman said, “People have to pay their bills, right? They’ve got to make a mortgage payment. They’ve got to put food on the table for their kids. You’ve got to live the dream, but you’ve got to also be realistic at some point.”

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Job Market Woes: More Funding, Stability Needed for Turnaround

By Angela Gabriel
May 8, 2025

The biopharma job market likely won’t turn around until 2026, according to two industry experts. Both cited a need for more investment and noted the impact of uncertainty on the industry.

The biopharma job market is unlikely to turn around this year, according to two industry experts who cited a need for more investment and regulatory predictability as key factors to a hiring increase.

“I expect 2026 will be the real inflection point,” said Audrey Greenberg, CEO and founder of AG Capital Advisors, a strategic advisory firm. “The election year, uncertainty last year and the capital markets conditions—coupled with sort of inflation concerns and global trade and geopolitical risks—are all sort of making folks stop and stare, like rubberneckers during a car crash.”

Greenberg noted that emerging biotech and early-stage research and development hiring are still slow and will probably lag until the markets fully recover and rebound.

Based on BioSpace data for April, overall biopharma hiring activity is down year over year. There were 8% fewer job postings live on the website last month than the year prior.

Ira Leiderman, healthcare managing director at investment banking firm Cassel Salpeter & Co., which primarily handles mergers and acquisitions, said there’s a low chance hiring will turn around in 2025. Echoing Greenberg, he noted that just as the job market looked like it would get better, it was hit with uncertainty on the macro level with the economy and political situation and the micro level for biotech. Certainty must come back for the situation to improve, he said.

Leiderman noted that it’s possible the biopharma job market will turn around after the midterm elections in 2026. If the House and Senate flip, he explained, President Donald Trump may not be able to run the country by fiat and executive orders.

“Right now, Congress is not doing their job, in my opinion, and they’re getting steamrolled,” Leiderman said.

Investment Key Factor in Turnaround

For the biopharma job market to turn around, there needs to be more capital deployment, according to Greenberg.

“Funding is still very selective,” she said. “A lot of capital is sitting on the sidelines. We need recovery in the IPO markets, and then that will allow for the redeployment of capital into early-stage companies and late-stage ventures. So, the cycle of capital needs to increase in momentum, starting with the IPO market opening up.”

A recent BioSpace article noted that more capital left biotech than entered the sector in 42 of 52 weeks of 2024.

Greenberg noted there are some bright spots for investment, citing Philadelphia and New Jersey as examples. According to CBRE data, between 2019 and 2024:

Leiderman’s thoughts on investment aligned with Greenberg’s, as he noted that the flow of funds into biotech has decreased and venture capital activity has dried up.

“There are funds with a lot of money that are holding back, and they’re keeping dry powder for their portfolio companies,” Leiderman said. “We’re not seeing a lot of transactions getting closed.”

Biopharma VC funding dropped 20% year over year in the first quarter, from $8.1 billion to $6.5 billion.

As to what could spark a change in investment, Leiderman said, “I think when we see people feeling good about the stock market without the crazy volatility that we’ve been seeing over the past month, people may start saying, ‘Well, maybe now it’s time to start looking at transactions and still putting some money to work.’”

Regulatory Predictability, M&A Activity Also Critical

Regulatory predictability is another factor in the job market turning around, according to Greenberg. She cited recent changes at the FDA as part of what’s holding the market back. Those changes include 3,500 FDA staffers being let go in April, leading to drug review delays.

Leiderman also pointed toward a lack of predictability where the FDA is concerned, noting “you have successful Phase III trials, registration studies, and you file your BLA or your NDA, and then who knows how long it’s going to take to get out of the agency.”

In addition, he said cuts to research funding at universities could become a hiring issue, as the biopharma industry sources scientists from those academic institutions, from grads and postdocs to junior and senior faculty.

“If that gets cut back, we’re killing the farm club, right?” Leiderman said. “We’re going to have empty benches.”

The final factor Greenberg cited for the biopharma job market turning around is more mergers and acquisitions.

“We’ve seen a lot of partnerships, but Big Pharma—and they’re the ones with all the dollars—is still a bit cautious,” she said. “But I think it’ll really only be a matter of time before pipeline gaps force aggressive buying and partnering.”

Although M&A value in biopharma rose 101% in the first quarter of the year compared to the final three months of 2024, policy challenges prompted pharmas to turn to less risky licensing transactions.

Finding the Right Rhythm for Growth, Hiring

How companies pace growth moving forward is also important to the biopharma job market, according to Greenberg. She noted that businesses should avoid not only underhiring but also overhiring, which can lead to layoffs.

“Not too hot, not too cold,” Greenberg said. “You need to hire against real inflection points and avoid ‘short-termism,’ is a phrase I like to use.”

She noted that when it comes to hiring, timing can be particularly difficult for those running a manufacturing operation, such as a contract development and manufacturing organization. When CDMOs are trying to sell contracts to clients, she explained, they need to prove that they already have the capability, which means hiring a bit ahead of need.

“You need some people, say, six months door to floor, meaning from when you hire someone to when they’re actually operational and fully functional on the manufacturing floor,” Greenberg said.

Leiderman’s recommendation for how companies can pace growth was that they should focus on programs with the highest likelihood of success. He noted that data talks.

“If you have good data, it’s going to attract people who are going to want to fund that,” he said.

Putting It Into Perspective: It’s Not 2022, but That’s a Positive

As biopharma professionals keep an eye on the job market, funding and federal actions that impact the industry, Greenberg offered a positive take on the situation.

“This isn’t 2022, and that’s a good thing,” she said. “We’re in a more rational market. Emerging biotech is leaner, making good decisions. Big Pharma is incredibly disciplined, and cell and gene therapy, AI and manufacturing are scaling with purpose. So, I wouldn’t call it bad. I call it healthier and smarter hiring for the next wave of innovation.”

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Biotech’s ‘Nauseating Roller Coaster’ Repels Investors

By Ana Mulero
April 23, 2025

Biotech was starting to show signs of recovery after years of investor pullback—until new tariffs and economic uncertainty sent fresh shockwaves through an already fragile market.

More capital left biotech than entered the sector in 42 of 52 weeks of 2024. It was the second consecutive year of a prolonged downturn in biotech investment following the COVID-19 pandemic boom. And now, macro headwinds are adding even more to the gale pressuring the industry.

Bruce Booth, partner at early-stage biotech venture capital firm Atlas Venture, told BioSpace that “the biotech capital markets have been super challenging in the past couple of months; tariffs and macro issues, FDA turmoil, NIH issues and so much more.”

“There’s been no place for investors and companies to hide,” Booth added. “The daily volatility is a nauseating roller coaster.” Still, he emphasized that these gyrations haven’t shaken his belief in biotech’s long-term promise.

Frustrated investors have been pulling back from biotech, accelerating the flow of funds out of therapeutics development and signaling a sharp decline in confidence in the sector’s near-term potential. In 2024, capitulation in biotech got “so bad it might just be good,” Christopher Raymond, managing director and senior research analyst at Piper Sandler, told BioSpace.

Capitulation marks a moment of extreme investor pessimism when money exits the sector rapidly and sustainably. Christopher Garabedian, CEO of life sciences accelerator Xontogeny and Perceptive Advisors portfolio manager, explained that capitulation occurs when investors say, “We’re done,” and collectively sell off their holdings, unable to justify being in biotech anymore.

On a more positive note, Piper analysts said that such massive outflows often indicate that the worst of a downturn may be over, with the market potentially approaching or already hitting bottom—a sign that a recovery is finally on its way. This time, however, nascent signs of recovery in 2025 have been overshadowed by political turbulence and trade tensions.

“As the first quarter ends, the mood among biotech investors is poor, with frustration, despair and resignation widely felt,” TD Cowen’s analysts wrote in a recent note.

The Roots of Capitulation

Biotech, more than other sectors, relies on investor confidence to sustain the lengthy and costly therapy development process.

The roots of 2024’s biotech struggles stretch back to late 2021, when the market began cooling after the COVID–19 pandemic-driven boom. 2022 and 2023 were marked by a sharp decline in IPOs, shrinking private financing and waves of industry layoffs.

“In the pandemic years, we saw a surge in IPOs due to lower interest rates and an influx of nontraditional capital,” EY’s Arda Ural, who specializes in strategic planning and asset valuation in biotech, told BioSpace. “However, most of those assets have not lived up to their initial pricing and are trading underwater for their investments.”

Ira Leiderman, healthcare managing director at investment banking firm Cassel Salpeter & Co., echoed this sentiment. “Biotechs take a long time to die,” he told BioSpace. “But over the past few years, we’ve seen companies exhaust their runway. Some have restructured and many have gone bankrupt.”

Piper reported that in 2022, the biotech market held up better than in the two years that followed. While inflows slowed after December 2021, money was still entering the sector early in the year, and there were no major signs of panic.

The proportion of rising stocks versus falling ones, known as the breadth ratio, is another proxy for market sentiment, with lower values suggesting a broad-based retreat. According to Piper, the breadth ratio stood at 0.63 in late January 2022. By contrast, 2023 marked a deeper downturn, with the breadth ratio dipping to 0.29 in November.

Capitulation, too, followed this trend. Investor sentiment weakened as 36 of the first 45 weeks in 2023 saw outflows. Piper called 2023 “abysmal,” with net outflows of $16 billion, compared to $12.7 billion in 2024.
In 2024, the pressure continued, with biotech fund outflows occurring in 42 of 52 weeks, according to Piper Sandler data. Lipper/AMG Data Services put out similar findings, revealing that 80–85% of 2024 biotech investment funds experienced outflows.

“We’ve had essentially two straight years—2023 and 2024—of nothing but negative fund flows,” Raymond said. The breadth ratio also dipped in 2024, down to 0.21—the “lowest level since 2009 and below the magic number of 0.3,” which has historically been the point of a market rebound, he said.

This trend does not necessarily indicate a complete rejection of biotech, Garabedian stressed. Investors may be exiting simply to balance their portfolios, offsetting gains elsewhere, he told BioSpace.

Indeed, history suggests that when the breadth ratio falls below 0.3 like in December 2024, the S&P biotech index, or XBI, typically gains around 16% over the next six months. Booth said that as 2025 unfolds, the historical pattern Piper highlighted provides a glimmer of optimism for the industry.

“Biotech will remain in recovery mode [in 2025], but that doesn’t mean pessimism prevails,” Evaluate’s 2025 preview states.

But with the administration threatening a variety of tariffs and wiping out much of the government’s workforce, including many top regulators, the path of that recovery has become ever more uncertain.

“Given the current environment, we don’t anticipate the IPO market to offer a window in the next 3–6 months,” Ural said.

Rising Tides in a Very Rough Ocean

Still, Booth remains hopeful about biotech’s outlook. He said that while current volatility is “nauseating,” early-stage investors can take the long view.

“Fortunately, as early-stage venture investors, we can take a very long-term view of the space,” Booth told BioSpace, “and our perspective on the sector’s 5–10 year horizon remains very positive.”

He emphasized, however, that macroeconomic stability will be crucial for sustaining momentum. Upheaval at the FDA and other agencies under Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s oversight as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services continues to ripple across the industry, as do the continued tariff threats from President Donald Trump.

Prior to these developments, biotech had set itself up for a recovery. Private investment had strengthened, particularly in early-stage companies. “Both seed-stage and Series A have seen strong investment,” Kale Frank, managing director of Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) life science and healthcare division, told BioSpace. 2024 also was the second-largest year for public equity issuance ever, Frank added.

With valuations adjusted downward, biotech companies adopted leaner operating strategies and were prioritizing their most promising assets. Garabedian said this is a “silver lining” highlighted by the Piper data. “All these things are in play now, so the runways these companies have when they do raise money will get farther.”

Still, in this environment, only the strong survive, said Margery Fischbein, healthcare managing director at CS. The gap between the “haves and have-nots” in biotech is widening, she warned. Thus, even when the sector does buoy, “I don’t think we’ll see a rising tide lifting all boats.”

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How Low Will It Go? March M&A Stays Quiet in the Middle Market

By Demitri Diakantonis
April 7, 2025

Blame the tariffs, blame reluctant buyers and sellers — blame whatever you want — but the fact of the matter is dealflow is continues to putter along. In fact, March’s totals were at the lowest level since May 2013. Here’s our monthly deal analysis.

According to LSEG, there were 52 mid-market deals valued at about $13.7 billion last month compared to 74 deals valued close to $22 billion for the same period in 2024. The data is based on North American completed deals worth between $100 billion and $1 billion.

Year-to-date totals are 5 percent off of 2024’s transaction total of 206 deals, though value totals are 5 percent higher at $61.7 million due to higher prices per deal done this year.

Expectations were high coming into the year that there would be an uptick in dealflow after many quarters in the doldrums. Those expectations have yet to be met.

“New deals are taking longer to bring to market,” says Cassel Salpeter Co-Founder James Cassel. “The economic uncertainty and hesitancy among market participants contributed to fewer opportunities materializing than we had initially projected.”

One bright spot has been the real estate sector, driven mostly by the demand for data centers. The industry saw 30 deals valued at close to $6.8 billion compared to 12 deals valued at around $4 billion in the 2024 first quarter. A recent deal from March came from 1547 and Harrison Street, which acquired DRFortress, Hawaii’s largest carrier-neutral data center, from GI Partners.

Technology also saw an uptick in dealmaking, thanks to AI-driven deals, with 55 deals valued at about $15.7 billion compared to 49 deals valued at around $11.2 billion in the 2024 first quarter.

The healthcare industry, historically a staple of mid-market M&A, continues to decline with just 22 deals compared to 39 at this time last year with deal value dropping from $8.9 billion to $5.3 billion. The industrials, retail and consumer staples sectors also saw sharp declines.

In the league tables, Piper Sandler (NYSE: PIPR) jumped to first place by advising on the most deals (10). Evercore (NYSE: EVR) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) round out the top three. They advised on nine and seven deals, respectively.

“We anticipate a choppy market until there’s greater clarity and stability,” Cassel says. “Buyers and sellers remain hesitant and worry about the effect of tariff inflation and consumer sentiment with concerns of a recession seeming closer than they have over the past 12 months.”

Reach Cassel at jcassel@cs-ib.com.

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